Dave's post about the Zune vs. the iPod reminded me of the big doubt I have about Microsoft's future.
Severe lack of creativity.
It seems that Microsoft takes an idea that someone else came up with and they do it 100 times bigger: someone invents a tennis racket, they build a tennis racket that is as big as San Antonio.
From the Start bar to Internet Explorer, to the new Zune.
Really? The best thing they can add to the mp3 player makert is an iPod with a bigger screen?
I wonder if this will eventually lead to the downfall of Microsoft. Internet Explorer only exists because Netscape did first, so they took Netscapes ideas, bundled it with windows so that everyone who owned a Windows computer had to use it, and so Netscape went down.
Mozilla, Apple, and Google are all creating better products and programs than Microsoft... and Microsoft isn't catching up fast enough to clobber these companies as it has in the past, and they're just not creative or innovative - Microsoft is nothing new, only they same thing done... and just not quite as good.
You are so right. Microsoft could be the leader again if they were not so worried about being dethrowned. They already have been and don't know it. The only reason why Microsoft has as much as they do is becuase it would cost too much for the world to switch.
Cost is a huge factor - especially in the corporate world with server farms and hundreds of workstations.
I think there are three other reasons though:
1. The Learning Curve - they keyboard is arranged so the levers don't hit each other on an old typewriter... the Dvorak layout is much better, easier, faster to use, but it is too hard to convince people because they'd have to learn.
2. Business/Server compatability. Are corporations really going to fire or send back to school all the Windows Server Administrators? Do Mac or other alternatives have business server software?
3. Stability - Mount Microsoft is slow to change. This is bad as far as innovation and creativity, but it's great to know that the company will still be around in 5 years.